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Archives for November 2018

Monday Morning MD: — Sloppy fields means fewer injuries

“The field is horrendous,”

“It’s a complete shit show”

These were the words used to describe the Dolphins home field before kickoff.

After rain and a Miami-Duke college game Saturday night, field conditions were less than ideal. In the end, it was a sloppy game on a sloppy field but the field did not influence the game. This was the second straight year the Jets had to play on a less than idea field versus the Dolphins.

 

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  • Injury analysis and how it will impact players on the field (and in your lineup)
  • Contract breakdowns from people who negotiated them
  • And of course, the Hall of Famer, John Clayton

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MNF Preview – Amari Cooper can have Big Cowboys’ Debut

Tennessee at Dallas

Spread: Cowboys -5

When Tennessee Has The Ball:

This offense has been extremely disappointing this year. It has been awfully tough to watch at times. It might be time to stop making excuses for Marcus Mariota, but he has played through an injury to his throwing arm. That can’t be ignored. Coming off a bye might be exactly what Mariota needs.

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  • Injury analysis and how it will impact players on the field (and in your lineup)
  • Contract breakdowns from people who negotiated them
  • And of course, the Hall of Famer, John Clayton

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Fantasy Saturday – Stay away from Allen Robinson

Week 9 Fantasy Injury Impact

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Baltimore’s Offensive Line

The Ravens were without two starting offensive linemen last week and were dominated up front by Carolina. Ronnie Stanley, one of their best linemen, was then injured in that contest and will not play against Pittsburgh. This unit is really beat up needless to say and both offensive tackles have been ruled out. They face a physical Steelers defensive line as well as a capable pair of edge rushers in TJ Watt and Bud Dupree. Pittsburgh did a great job of confusing the Browns protection schemes a week ago and could do the same vs. the Ravens, especially with cohesion being a possible problem. The Steelers have been quietly excellent against the run and Alex Collins (who is also questionable) hasn’t inspired confidence of late with his running as well as fumbling issues. Overall, this is a game to avoid for fantasy reasons overall. Don’t expect much production on either side of the ball.

Chicago at Buffalo

 

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Dr Chao Friday – Big-Time QBs Banged Up, but Should Play

A look at key injuries pertaining to your fantasy needs for Week 9:

QB

Cam Newton’s shoulder is fine and should be no issue.

Aaron Rodgers is essentially 100% and may even lose the brace.

Ben Roethlisberger fractured and index finger but since it is on his non-throwing hand, it should be a minimal to non-issue.

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Injuries may be Difference in Tight NFC North

The injury report is a must study in the NFC North each Friday.

November is going to be a brutal month for NFC North teams and none of the four teams can afford overloaded injury reports. There’s a game-and-a-half gap between the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions with Minnesota and Green Bay in between them. The upstart Bears are 4-3, the Vikings are 4-3-1, the Packers are 3-3-1 and the Lions are 3-4. See, it’s a tight race.

The way the month is shaping up the NFC North teams the all four teams can do serious damage to playoff hopes or playoff seedings. NFC North teams face each other five times this month. Unless one team gets hot, there is a good chance the NFC North leader could come out of the month one game over .500 or just .500.

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Week 9 Betting Trends You’d Be Foolish to Ignore

There are a handful of great games on the board this weekend and some very useful trends worth taking into consideration before locking in your Week 9 plays. Let’s jump right into it.

Going Deep

Steelers at Ravens (-2.5), Over/Under 47

Game Matchup:  The Steelers and Ravens will meet in a pivotal game that should go a long way in determining the eventual winner of a crowded AFC North. Baltimore knocked off Pittsburgh in a dominant 26-14 Week 4 win at Heinz Field back in late September, but the two teams have trended in opposite directions since then. The Steelers rallied with three-straight wins by a combined 102-56 margin to take over first-place in the division, while the Ravens have sputtered, losing three of their last four in falling to .500.

It’s been a particularly excruciating two weeks for Baltimore. Justin Tucker’s first career missed extra point led to a devastating 24-23 loss at home to the Saints two weeks ago. They then visited Carolina last week as a small favorite only to be thoroughly dominated by the Panthers. Of particular concern for Baltimore is that its supposedly elite defense looks suddenly vulnerable. It surrendered 154 rushing yards and failed to sack an efficient Cam Newton on its way to yielding 36 points to what has otherwise been an average Carolina offense.

So much for that.

The Steelers’ defense, meanwhile, allowed only 237 total yards in a convincing 33-18 win over the Browns, a defensive effort that effectively sealed the deal on the firings of Hue Jackson and Todd Haley earlier in the week.

There have also been offensive concerns for the Ravens, and, if we’re being honest, barring a second-half revival, Joe Flacco’s time in Baltimore may be running out. Despite an encouraging start to the season and an overall improved team offensive output, the Ravens are averaging only 6.4 yards per pass (26th in the NFL) and completing only 60.9% of attempts (28th in the NFL) after Flacco completed only 22 of 39 pass attempts for 192 yards last week. Flacco will have his work cut out for him against a Pittsburgh defense allowing only 6.6 yards per pass attempt and a 61.8% completion percentage. Both marks are among the league’s best. The Ravens’ run game has also struggled, generating only 3.6 yards per rush (31st) and 96.6 yards per game (24th). That doesn’t bode well against a Steelers’ run defense that is top-ten in opponent yards per rush (10th), rush yards per game (6th), and opponent rush touchdowns per game (7th).

Ben Roethlisberger leads the league’s No. 2 passing offense against the league’s No. 1 pass defense. The Ravens are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete only 59.5% of their pass attempts and 5.7 yards per pass, both of which are league-bests. Roethlisberger will look to change his recent luck at M&T Bank Stadium, which hasn’t been kind to him:

Expect him to rely on tight ends Jesse James and Vance McDonald. The duo has combined for 42 receptions and 14 yards per catch this season. On the ground, James Conner was limited to only 19 yards rushing back in late September, but he has been a stud this season, totaling 599 rushing yards on 127 carries and nine touchdowns. Just how good has Conner been?

That’s quite the burn. Ouch.

The Ravens need more out of Flacco this week, but this game will likely be won or lost for the Ravens on the defensive side of the ball. Stop me if you have heard that one before.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Gambling trends: The Ravens opened as a 3-point favorite, but heavy action on the Steelers has pushed the line down under a field goal at some books as of Friday morning. It’s always a good idea to shop around for the best lines, but especially here. The 3-point spread, available at SugarHouse, is a critical number and several books are currently offering the Ravens at -2.5. Check BetStars NJ for some divergent lines. The majority of the action remains on Pittsburgh, with 76% of point-spread bets and 71% of the point-spread money backing Mike Tomlin’s team.

Things to know: There are some convincing trends that overwhelmingly favor Baltimore. The home team has won 24 of the last 35 meetings between these two teams. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Steelers and 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in which they are coming off a loss of 14 points or more. 

Since 2016, Baltimore is 10-5 ATS in division games, while Pittsburgh is only 7-9 ATS. It’s not all bad for the Steelers, there’s just not as much that leans in their favor. Pittsburgh, however, is 8-0-1 straight up over their past nine road games and 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

Prediction: While I’m a bit concerned about the availability of players like C.J. Mosley, Ronnie Stanley, and Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens are a better team than they have shown over the past two weeks. The revenge factor here doesn’t concern me as much, given the success of the home team in this matchup and that Baltimore should be the far more desperate team. The Ravens have shown excellent ATS resiliency after poor performances under Harbaugh, and have been particularly good lately against the Steelers. I don’t see why that would change this time around. Oh, and I get an opportunity to fade over 70% of the betting public that is on the Steelers? I’m here for it.

Ravens 26, Steelers 20

Rams at Saints (+1), Over/Under 58.5

Game Matchup: This one should be fun. The NFC’s current top two teams will meet in what has the potential to be a classic shootout. The total is pushing 60, but with both teams averaging more than a combined 66 points per game, I’m not sure that’s high enough. The Saints come in riding a six-game winning-streak, including a 30-20 revenge win over the Vikings in Minnesota last week. Hey, by the way–could you imagine having a Vikings first half moneyline bet in that game? Man, that would’ve been brutal. 

The setup: The Vikings led 13-10 and were in the midst of putting together an impressive drive to extend their lead just before the end of the half, and then this happened…

Could you imagine?

Well, I could imagine because I lived it, so that’s neat.

Anyway, the Rams are a perfect 8-0 after surviving Green Bay at home a week ago. Big ups go to now former Packer Ty Montgomery for the assist:

Los Angeles is cooking right now and head coach Sean McVay may be the best chef in the game. The Rams are racking up 33 points and 442.6 yards per game and are among the NFL’s elite in several key offensive categories. Todd Gurley leads the NFL with 800 rushing yards and has gained 1,151 total yards from scrimmage to go along with his 15 total touchdowns. He paces an NFL-best rushing attack that’s netted 150.9 yards per game. Honestly, I’m not sure that any team can keep Gurley in check right now, but he faces a difficult matchup against a Saints defense that is No. 1 in the NFL in both opponent yards per rush (3.2) and total yards per game (74.1).

Even if the Saints slow down the Rams’ rushing attack, Los Angeles’ offense should have plenty of opportunities to make plays through the air. The Rams are No. 1 in the NFL, averaging 9.2 yards per pass, and will go against a New Orleans secondary that’s allowing 8.3 yards per attempt.

When the Saints have the football, it’s all about Drew Brees. There’s a reason the Saints are dropping 33.4 points per game this season, and it’s not hard to figure out why. The Rams’ pass defense is in the top-half of the league in most statistical categories, but Brees has been otherworldly this season. He’s completing a career-best 77.4% of his attempts for 1,990 yards and 14 touchdowns against only one interception.

Despite having high-profile running backs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, the Saints have averaged only 3.9 yards per carry this season. That, however, is a bit misleading. Kamara’s yards per carry average is down from 6.1 ypc a season ago to 4.4 ypc this season, but he’s still been an effective runner and has hauled in 47 receptions for 393 yards. Here is video evidence that Kamara does in fact remain excellent:

Expect the Saints to move it on the ground against a generous Rams rush defense that’s allowing 4.8 yards per carry.

Betting trends: The Rams opened as a one-point road favorite earlier in the week and as of Friday morning sit anywhere between a one to two-point favorite, depending on the sports book. The total volume of point-spread bets is split dead even, but 59% of the money backs the Saints.

Things to know: There are a few trends supporting the Saints that I like, but there’s one that really stands out. Drew Brees is 15-2 ATS when facing an unbeaten opponent and 26-7 ATS when facing an opponent with a winning-percentage between 75-100%. The Rams, meanwhile, are 1-2 ATS under McVay (a very small sample size) against teams with the same winning percentage. Brees is 37-26-2 ATS throughout his career as an underdog and 8-4 ATS in his last 12 games as a home underdog. More recently, New Orleans is 4-1 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the 2016 season.

Want more? Good, because I’ve got more.

The Saints are 21-10 ATS against conference opponents over the past three seasons and 10-0-1 ATS between Weeks 5-9 since the start of the 2016 season. In recent seasons, Brees has been:

1) Money against good teams

2) Excellent at home

3) Excellent against conference opponents

4) Absolutely lights out during this portion of the schedule

Prediction: I’ve bet against the Saints each of the past two weeks and it has burned me. I’m a little bit wary of arriving late to the party, only to find out that it’s over, but the aforementioned trends make a pretty convincing argument that they are the right side in this one. The Rams are absolutely electric offensively, and Aaron Donald may be the game’s best defensive player, but the Rams showed some cracks a week ago when they barely survived Green Bay. I’m relying on Drew Brees, home-field advantage, and what has been a quietly improving Saints defense in recent weeks to make a key stop and back up the trends.

Saints 34, Rams 30

Quick Picks

Houston (+1) at Denver

I absolutely hate that 72% of point-spread bets and 69% of the money is currently on the Texans in this game, but I do LOVE <3 the following trends:

  • Denver is 6-12-2 ATS as a home favorite off a loss in their last 20 games
  • Denver is 7-11-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2015
  • Denver is 4-12-1 ATS against AFC opponents over the last two seasons
  • Denver is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss
  • Denver is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite
  • Denver is 4-7-2 ATS when favored by three points or less since the start of 2015
  • Denver is 7-15-2 ATS under Vance Joseph
  • Denver is 1-6 ATS after a division game since 2017
  • Houston is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record.
  • Denver is 1-9 ATS under Vance Joseph when they were an underdog in their previous game

See a theme here? I’m a huge believer in Deshaun Watson, I like the jolt Demaryius Thomas will bring to the Houston offense, and the Texans are a team that’s built to win on the road. Also, did you see those trends?!?

Texans 23, Broncos 16

Titans (+6) at Cowboys

The Cowboys traded away a first-round draft pick for Amari Cooper. While Cooper immediately becomes Dak Prescott’s best weapon in the passing game, I suspect the Dallas offense isn’t about to suddenly morph into a juggernaut. The Titans, meanwhile, have been underwhelming in recent weeks and are coming off a bye after a brutal 20-19 loss in London two weeks ago to the Chargers. Dallas is only 3-4 ATS as home favorites since the start of last season and is 7-11 ATS as home favorites since the start of the 2015 season. Both teams have been good in non-conference games with the Cowboys going 7-2-1 ATS in such games since the start of the 2016 season, while Tennessee is 4-1 ATS since the start of the 2017 season. I don’t think highly of either of these squads, and I view them as similar in many ways. That’s while I’ll gladly line up and grab the six points with Tennessee.

Packers at Patriots (-5)

Green Bay is going to coast-to-coast after playing in Los Angeles a week ago and now heading to New England this Sunday night. The Packers played well enough to win a week ago against the undefeated Rams, but here’s the thing–they didn’t.  Still, Aaron Rodgers is a cyborg and he’s clearly pissed about last week’s result:

It’s typically never a wise move to side against Rodgers, particularly an angry Rodgers, but consider this:

  • New England is 8-4 ATS in non-conference games since the start of the 2016 season
  • New England is 16-7 ATS as home favorites since the start of the 2016 season
  • New England is 33-13 ATS in all games over the last three seasons

If I’m going to bet against Rodgers, I’m going to do it when Tom Brady is standing on the opposite sideline.

Patriots 36, Packers 28

Off the Record

Don’t count it against me if these teams lose, but absolutely give me credit if they win:

Chargers, Falcons, Bears, Lions, and Bucs

Be sure to check SugarHouse Sportsbook if you’re in New Jersey for the latest odds and get a $250 deposit bonus when you sign up.

UPDATE: SugarHouse will soon become BetRivers sportsbook.

Game of Week – Saints-Rams Should be Fantasy Bonanza

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans

Spread: Rams -1.5

When Los Angeles Has The Ball:

This projects to be an excellent football game between two of the very top teams in the league and is quite possibly an NFC Championship game preview. It also projects to be a game that we should see a lot of points scored. And for fantasy reasons, you want pretty much any player in this game that you can get. Of course, the Rams are one of the best offenses in football with a fantastic blend of great personnel with a supreme offensive scheme. The one question here though is Jared Goff at a point of his career where he is ready to outduel Drew Brees in New Orleans in a high scoring game? We shall see and it will be a blast to watch. Sean McVay runs an offense with excellent run/pass balance. Los Angeles is almost at a 50/50 run/pass split. But in this game, going pass-heavy makes the most sense, even in the very loud dome. The reasoning for this is that the Saints have been great against the run and vulnerable, but improving, against the pass. Goff is a very good deep passer and surely will take shots in this game downfield, most likely to Brandin Cooks. The Saints have been vulnerable to the deep ball. Will Brandin Cooks mostly see Marshon Lattimore?

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Going One-on-One with Venerable Philip Rivers

 In his 13 seasons as the starting quarterback of the Chargers, Philip Rivers has been on some great teams. From 2006-09, (the first four years of Rivers’ tenure as the starter), the Chargers’ roster was arguably the best in the NFL.

A decade later, Rivers is still part of the Chargers’ roster as they are now the Los Angeles Chargers and are based in Orange County after moving from San Diego last year. Rivers, who still thinks the Chargers should have won a Super Bowl or two back in the heyday, is  optimistic that this current Chargers’ version can be as good or better than those teams. Five weeks from his 37th birthday, Rivers is a big reason why the 5-2 Chargers are a contender in the AFC. He is an MVP candidate and is playing as well as he ever has.

“I think we have a chance,” Rivers said in a telephone interview with Clayton Football Thursday from the Chargers’ facility.

Rivers said going into this season – the Chargers finished 9-3 last season after starting 0-4 – that he thought this roster could rival those great Chargers’ rosters from a decade ago. Then, tight end Hunter Henry suffered a torn ACL in May. Then, star pass-rusher Joey Bosa suffered a summer foot injury that is still keeping him from playing and that a before running back Melvin Gordon dealt with injuries this season.

Still, Rivers and the Chargers are a resilient bunch. They have won four straight heading into a game at Seattle on Sunday. Including a trip to London, the Chargers are in the midst of a six-week stretch between playing at home. The StubHub Center, of course, has been a massive gathering place for fans of visiting teams, anyway. These Chargers have a lot going against them. Yet, they keep going. Rivers said it’s the makeup of the team.

“This locker room is as good as it’s ever been,” Rivers said. “We all get along. We  go out and say ‘hey, let’s go and get it done on the field.’ It’s really special group.”

Rivers credits second-year Chargers’ coach Anthony Lynn for navigating through all the challenges of the move, injuries and slow starts.

Of course, Rivers deserves credit for the Chargers’ success as well. He has thrown 17 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He has a passer’s rating of 117.8. If you look at the top of the quarterback stat sheets, you will see the most successful quarterbacks this year are the older, Hall of Fame types. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger all having stellar seasons. Being so focused on his own team’s season, Rivers doesn’t know all the details. But he does know the older quarterbacks are having success.

“I think as long as you’re accurate and make quick decisions in the pocket, you have success at an older age in this career,’ Rivers said. “I think you are seeing that this year.”

The Seattle game marks a special occasion in Rivers’ career. It will be his 200th consecutive start. Only Brett Favre and Peyton and Eli Manning have accomplished that streak as quarterbacks. Rivers — who played in 51 straight games at North Carolina State — grew up as a Favre fan in Alabama. He grew into a big Peyton Manning  fan and he and Eli Manning were in the same draft class – and they were traded for each other in 2004.

   Rivers calls the streak “meaningful “ and is excited that this is the road trip his family chose to come on. They go on one trip annually and, ironically, this year’s trip is the milestone game. Rivers also gives credits to trainers, medical staff, coaches and teammates for helping he keep this streak alive. He said he’d love to get to Favre’s mark of 297 straight games,  that seems like a long way away.

“I honestly don’t care if I throw the ball 10 times a game as long as we win,” Rivers said. “It’s not that I want to throw for 400 yards. I’d hand the ball off every play if it means we win the game. I’m at that point of my career.”

 

 

Making Financial Sense of Trading-Deadline Moves

This year’s trading deadline was highly anticipated because of the expected movement. The flurry of activity in the hours leading up to Tuesday’s deadline didn’t disappoint.

Here’s a look at the financial ramifications of the five deals made as the trading period ended. A team acquiring a player needed enough salary-cap room to absorb the remainder of his current salary. Since the trades occurred trade after Week Eight’s games, the acquiring team is be responsible for 9/17th of a player’s 2018 base salary and any other applicable salary components in his contract. Trades can’t be executed again until the 2019 league year begins on March 13 at 4 pm eastern time.

Golden Tate (WR): To Philadelphia Eagles From Detroit Lions

Trade Compensation: 2019 Third Round Pick

Remaining 2018 Salary: $3,705,882 (Lions 2018 Salary Cap Savings)
Eagles Current Cap Room: $6.34 Million
Lions 2019 Dead Money: None (Expiring Contract)

Eagles executive vice-president of football operations Howie Roseman making some sort of trading deadline deal shouldn’t come as surprise. He has been one of the most active NFL front office executives in the trade market over the last couple of years.

The Lions had shown little interest in giving Tate the contract extension he had long desired. Tate has clearly outperformed the five-year, $31 million deal he signed in 2014. Since the start of the 2014 season, Tate is sixth in the NFL with 416 receptions and 10th with 4,741 receiving yards.

Tate’s arrival could be to the detriment of Nelson Agholor. Tate, 30, excels in the slot where Agholor has been most effective over the last two seasons.

It’s hard to imagine Tate being more than a rental because of his expected contract demands and Philadelphia’s salary cap situation. The Eagles have the NFL’s second most 2019 cap commitments at $208.4 million with 44 players under contract. The top 51 cap numbers matter under offseason cap accounting rules. The 2019 salary cap will be in the $190 million neighborhood with a similar increase as in recent years.

There are natural exits points with several of Philadelphia’s contracts. For example, declining the 2019 options on quarterback Nick Foles and defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan while also releasing left tackle Jason Peters would collectively create $36.3 million of cap space.

Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery’s $11.75 million 2019 base salary is already fully guaranteed. The four-year, $52 million extension with slightly more than $27.25 million in guarantees Jeffery signed late in the 2017 season could be an important data point for Tate.

A lack of significant cap space should prevent the Eagles from being major players in free agency during the offseason. If Tate can sign a lucrative free agent contract, the third-round pick given up for him could be offset by the compensatory pick received in 2020. There’s a chance it could be the maximum of a third round pick but more likely a fourth round draft choice. The Lions were less likely to receive the same type of compensation as the Eagles if Tate had left after playing out his contract because of being in better cap space for free agency.

Demaryius Thomas (WR): To Houston Texans From Denver Broncos

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  • Injury analysis and how it will impact players on the field (and in your lineup)
  • Contract breakdowns from people who negotiated them
  • And of course, the Hall of Famer, John Clayton

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TNF Preview – Raiders, 49ers Right in Thick of Race for Top Pick

Usually at this time of the week, I preview the Thursday Night Game. However, that is getting skipped this week because the participants in that contest, Oakland at San Francisco, really just doesn’t move the needle. However, this battle of one-win teams does spark a conversation concerning the very top of the 2019 NFL Draft and this Thursday Nighter could go a long way to figuring out the early draft order.

Let’s look at the contenders for the No. 1 overall pick:

New York Giants

Current Record: 1-7

Where They Would Draft Today: 1st

Remaining Schedule: Bye, at San Francisco, Tampa Bay, at Philadelphia, Chicago, at Washington, Tennessee, at Indianapolis, Dallas

Plan of Attack: Maybe the Giants can address their quarterback situation by trading for someone like Derek Carr or adding another veteran, but most likely, New York has to go quarterback at the top of the draft. Shockingly, the other teams on this list (with the possible exception of Oakland) will not be in the quarterback market. Unlike recent years, this doesn’t project to be a real top-heavy quarterback draft, but even if the Giants fall out of the first overall pick, they might still be in position to draft the top quarterback on the board. Quarterback has to be the top priority, but New York also needs help all over the defense and their offensive line is still a disaster.

San Francisco

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  • Fantasy and gambling information you can use from genuine experts
  • Injury analysis and how it will impact players on the field (and in your lineup)
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  • And of course, the Hall of Famer, John Clayton

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